Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
