Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a critical trip to the US capital to confer with US President Donald Trump. This constitutes the initial face-to-face meeting for the two figures following an extended period of escalating tensions and heated rhetoric.
Agenda for Discussion
Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, security, and American military actions on alleged narco-boats are set to be top on the list of topics when they gather at the White House on the scheduled day.
Background of Strained Relations
Although the two men were cordial in a telephone conversation after a recent American action, Petro has subsequently said he feels there is a "genuine danger" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier remarked that a military operation in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming meeting comes after months of the two leaders trading barbs. Petro has often condemned repeated US attacks on alleged drugs boats in the regional waters, as well as the White House's border policies.
"His stance shifted," Trump was quoted as stating ahead of the White House talks.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has accused Petro's administration of not taking sufficient action to halt the trafficking of cocaine heading north, and has pledged to expand military actions to land targets throughout the region.
But, the hostility appeared to dissipate after a "cordial" telephone conversation involving the two presidents, which a Colombian official later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".
Diplomatic Bridge
According to diplomatic sources, a key figure – Rand Paul – was pivotal in facilitating the dialogue. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong way," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relationship to improve."
Regional Stability and the ELN
Prior to the visit, officials from Bogotá indicated that much of the conversation would focus on mutual US and Colombian concerns over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an long frontier.
A significant portion of that border is controlled of the ELN. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, extortion, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and allegedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.
For Trump, tackling the challenge of the ELN will be vital to guaranteeing safety for US companies involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts note that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt investment plans by attacking international businesses and staff, as it has previously done in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Cooperation
An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro instituted a temporary pause on information exchange with US authorities following Trump's threats.
The US has, in turn, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on Colombian officials, encompassing the president and his relatives.
"There is no fight without Colombia," said a analyst. "Any move to cut off Colombian cooperation could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Possible Scenarios
Despite several issues for cooperation, the potential for a clash exists. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a former diplomat. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avert Trump's ire... However, it's unpredictable."
For the Colombian leader, even a difficult meeting could be advantageous. His time in office ends soon, and the outcome of the talks could impact the political future of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable situation," noted a regional expert. "If it goes well undermines criticism... If it doesn't, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favour."
